Has Monza Made Mercedes Betting Favourites Again?

The roar of the Mercedes engine through the Parabolica curve during Friday practice at Monza sounded different. Not the volume – but the way the W15 gripped the asphalt as speed touched 350 km/h. I have followed F1 for 38 years, and I recognise the feeling when a team begins to find its rhythm again. There is a confidence in how Mercedes operates here that we have rarely seen since the start of the season. The question posed on the F1 official website – "Has Monza made Mercedes betting favourites again?" – is no longer baseless speculation. The context of this season has been far from comfortable for Mercedes. They started slowly, struggling with a difficult car and inconsistency across rounds. But Monza is a different story entirely. This is the highest average-speed circuit on the calendar, where power unit output and low-drag aerodynamic efficiency are decisive. With their historical DNA, Mercedes always knows how to maximise the long straights of Monza. Five consecutive wins from 2026 to 2026, plus Lewis Hamilton's 2026 victory, reinforce the belief that this is their territory. The truth lies in qualifying data. When teams arrive with medium or low downforce levels, the chassis deficiencies that Mercedes face elsewhere nearly disappear. At Monza, front-tyre wake is no longer the primary nightmare – instead, drag and top speed matter. The Mercedes power unit, nicknamed the "engine of records," remains one of the strongest on the grid. When you don't have to worry about losing grip in low-speed corners, you can attack high-speed corners aggressively – and that is precisely the weapon that pays off here. Strategically, a 53-lap race at Monza makes starting in the top three crucial, as overtaking is harder than on other circuits. Mercedes has repeatedly proven their ability to read races and manage tyres here. This eight-time constructors' champion knows that Monza is not just a race of speed but a battle of patience and pit timing. Historically, they have produced remarkable comebacks that forced bookmakers to constantly adjust their odds. Monza rewards absolute precision – and Mercedes, with their engineering culture, is born to shine under such conditions. But Monza also has pitfalls easily overlooked. The very low tyre stress on this circuit can cause teams to overestimate their stability. A single mistake in tyre selection for qualifying or the race can destroy the entire weekend. What I want to emphasise is the difference between Mercedes appearing fast and actually sustaining that advantage to the finish. This is a blind spot that betting analysts often ignore. If they cannot build a safe gap ahead of rivals, they could be dragged into a tactical duel with teams possessing better race pace. I want to challenge myself a little: perhaps I am overly optimistic because of glorious memories of the past. Rivals like Red Bull and Ferrari are not standing still. Monza is a circuit of surprises – where a brave driver can create magic with a slightly inferior car, and where Italian races always carry an unpredictable fervent atmosphere. Monza is also a circuit where Ferrari always knows how to make opponents pay for every metre of the pit straight. I have witnessed races here where results completely contradicted predictions. But that is the beauty of this sport – and also the reason why thorough analysis becomes even more important. The real question we should ask is whether Mercedes can maintain this form into subsequent rounds or whether this is merely a brief reflection. Looking at recent seasons' data, Mercedes often improves notably in the second half of the season once they accumulate enough data to understand their car better. From their development trajectory since the start of the year, there is reason to believe Monza is not a fleeting false hope. Rather, it demonstrates that an engineering team that listens to the whispers of data can still find the path back to the top.